No matter what you read in local or international newspapers and magazines or see on TV you will inevitably find economists stating that the “leading indicators” reflect the direction of the world’s markets.
Some economists state the world economy is getting better, while others opine it is going to get worse before it gets better. The data relied on by the economists for these diverse opinions are: the GDP of the world and the component nations, consumer price indexes, commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, etc. No matter what their opinion is at this time they are all anxiously anticipating the upswing.
China remains optimistic. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in China in February of 2009 on the last leg of a four country tour of Asia focused on the global economic crisis. Gallup Polls conducted throughout 2008 reveal the Chinese were more optimistic about their economy than the other three nations she visited. Earlier this month, Wen Jiabao, the Premier of China publicly stated China’s economy is doing better than expected. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said last week there have been positive changes in the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2009.
However, given concerns about the accuracy of economic data in China I have a personal economic indicator which is similar to The Economist’s “Big Mac” index.
I am currently staying in Guangzhou on business. Guangzhou is a sleepless city where construction cranes have been the predominant feature of the skyline for years. However, the city was oddly quite around the Chinese New Year in late January when I happened to be in the same area of the same city, and it seemed it had been like that for a while. I saw blue sky. I didn’t see many people or cars out during the night. What was wrong with that? Dust, dirt, noise and crowds are good –they are signs that things are happening!
Over the past a few weeks, things seemed to be changing whichresulted in my discovery of the perfect indicators we are on the upswing in China which I call the weekday bed time and weekend wake-up time. The louder the noise from construction, crowds and cars is around me, the earlier it starts and the later it ends, the earlier I wake up and the later I go to bed. It works really well. I have become an early bird even if I still stay up late. I am happy more often than I am sad. It just means that life is returning to the normal bustling status we have become accustomed to in China in the past twenty years.
I have determined we do not need complicated economic indexes and financial data to determine how the economy around us is doing. We just need to be aware of what is happening around us.
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